Science or Fiction
We hear a lot on the news today about "Global Warming". There are advertisements from various environmental organizations and the news is continuously telling us that we are doomed.
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When the Television meteorologist tells us that there is chance of snow or rain tomorrow, they are drawing from data provided by large groups of scientists, in the U.S. the National Weather Service. Yet we have learned from experience that weather forecasting is FAR from an accurate science. If the prediction is 30%, most of us do not plan around bad weather. If the prediction is 90% then most do plan for it. But, have you ever seen these scientists predict a 90% chance of snow more than 7 day out? No, that far into the future would be fortune telling not science. Most of us would not pay any attention to the weatherman who tells us that that there 95% chance that there will be a storm two weeks from Wednesday, so why is everyone so willing to believe the GLOBAL WARMING prediction? Maybe because you can turn your television to any channel and listen to the news people tell us how we need to worry. You can read about in your news papers. You can read books and see movies on the subject.
Since the middle of last century there have been dire predictions of many types. We were going to run out of food by the 1990's. We were also going to run out of oil in the same time frame. During the 1970's there was talk of global cooling and the coming ice age. Today we are hearing of global warming. Strangely, this makes me picture the bearded 'street crazy' with sandwich boards stating, "The end is near", standing next to Al Gore holding up his book and movie. Global warming has become a political catch phrase. Even more disturbing is the trend to censure anyone with a dissenting opinion.
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There is data showing that the average temperature of our eco-sphere has been increasing recently. The cause of this warming trend is what is in question. Is it due to pollutants generated by man or is it due to some other outside factor. If we assume it is due to "green house" pollution then ask the question, "What if this warming trend continues." We can build a model that fits these suppositions and write articles warning of the results that our models predict. This method sound startlingly similar to the method used by science fiction writers to create a story, not like scientific method.
Here is a picture I found on the web of the siting of some official temperature measuring equipment you can read about this at Watts Up With That? If the link won't work WattsUp copy
 |  Climate researcher/Station Designer. |
More information on more bad station siting SurfaceSstations.org Here is a new address for the Watts Up With That? Blog.
The scientists who study these issues are funded by government grants. Obtaining those grants is much easier if your area of research is also a hot political and media issue. It is easier to get grants if your proposed study will produce evidence to back the popular belief. Therefore it pays better to do studies that do not oppose. You would have a lot of trouble getting a grant to study the connection between Earth warming and the receding Martian polar ice caps. Yet there is data that show the possibility of some outside influence to the current warming trend.
I took this picture while passing at 60+MPH. It is located on a transition road from the Kilpatrick Turnpike to Lake Heffner Parkway. All concrete and cars. This looks like a temperature pagoda and possibly a rain guage. I wonder if this contributes to the data?
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Political Science: I am sure you have heard the term before. There seems to be an alarming abuse of a new form of political science. That being politicians using science to further their political goals. Lets call it political-media-science. Politicians have historically used statistics as the science of getting the answer you want from the data. This article says that data showing higher temperatures during the Middle Ages than today has been omitted in the U.N. report on global warming. That is how statistics is abused; leave out data that is not supportive of your desired results. It is hard to find opinion pieces which support the dissenting point of view. Perhaps the media has abandoned the principle of unbiased reporting.
One of the favorite comments from the believers is: "Can we afford to ignore this if it is happening?" That is a good statement. We all know it is not a good idea to crap in the nest. So the believer raises their nose and smugly moves to the next subject in their repertoire. There is truth in the statement "We can not afford to ignore this warming". We also should not ignore the possibility that it is caused by an outside source, like an increase in solar radiation? Perhaps we should consider terraforming Mars, it is further away from the sun. Kim Stanley Robinson handled the terraforming of Mars in the Mars trilogy: "Red Mars", "Green Mars", and "Blue Mars" (Bantam Spectra Books). Oops we are back to science fiction.
If you were wondering about the bold on the believers that is due to the fact that the actions of the believers is much like religious zealots. Iy you voice a dissenting opinion you are shouted down and insulted. Name calling is the first defense of the religious zealot. Thus I may refer to these believers as members of "The Church of Global Warming".
Are we all being led by politicians with a docile media into
paying for solutions to a science fiction problem?
I believe we need to find an alternative to the gasoline internal combustion engine for our cars. Coal and oil are not the way to generate electricity, because smog sucks, not GW. I also believe that any reduction of noxious fumes is good. We already have the technology, we just don't use it. But I am tired of the politicians, the media and the gullible populace leaping from one band wagon to the next. A lie is not the right way to get the world to reduce pollution. It will be found out, credibility will suffer, and improvements will stall. Perhaps the truth, not exaggeration, not metaphor, simple truth. We are fouling our nest. The animals we like to feel superior to know better than to do that.
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