UN Suggestion: Diet, cure GlobalWarming.

From an article in the Guardian. "'Give up meat for one day [a week] initially, and decrease it from there,' said the Indian economist, who is a vegetarian. " This is a quote of Dr Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He blames the carbon footprint of bovine flatulence. Probably that of the consumers too.

But Cow farts are waaaay worse ("23 times more effective as a global warming agent than carbon dioxide") than the CO2 we exhale.

Looks like this is actually a war against people and lifestyle. India would probably like to suggest the neutron bombing of Muslim, Christian and Buddhist countries. That would work even better.

This becomes more ridiculous as each day passes.

Open NW Passage. Well, Uuh, Maybe Not...

So here we are the Labor Day weekend. Opening day of College football and later this week NFL. The end of summer. That also marks the end of the ice melting for the northern hemisphere. Yet as Bill Scanlon of the Rock Mountain News points out Santa need not worry about the seaworthiness of his establishment. The ice is still there. And will continue to be this year.
RMN: N. Pole Ice

Oops, maybe the predicted melt was a bit overstated. Now that prediction can be added to the list of predictions that proved to be wrong. Right in there with "Ice Age", and "Food riots". Do you remember the advertisement that the GW alarmists had running for a while where the child was standing on the railroad tracs while the train approached? The way the prediction looked to me when I read about it at the beginning of summer was that the leaders of the church of man made global warming were preaching that the open north-west passage was the first car in the train of global warming which is to strike us as we stand on the tracks of fate. Looks like that first car was as substantial as that puddle of water on the road in the distance on a hot summer day.

This failure of the melted north polar ice has simply helped to add to the "I don't want to pay to clean up the environment" crowd. This is actually a sad day, my fear is that all of the effort to clean up the environment will cease should the "Hockey Stick" turn out to be only the up slope of a sinusoidal cycle. By hanging the environment cleanup campaign on the coat tails of Global Warming the risk is loosing all creditability should Global Warming prove to be just one more inaccurate dire scientific prediction.

Al Gore and his group of believers may well have doomed our descendants to die by slow poisoning by jumping on a train of bad science. Our hope will lie in the short memory span of the people of the world.

Global Warming, Data to Prediction

Science and engineering are mostly about collecting data. The data is combined and new data derived. From this data it is possible to determine a trend which may be used to make a prediction. Yet there is the danger of jumping to an invalid conclusion due to determining an improper trend. This becomes much more possible if your data is prone to error and if you have financial considerations pushing for rapid or flamboyant results. There is also missing data which can affect any conclusions. In the case of the climate, we are discussing an extremely complex system. Many seem to be happy with the prediction of using a "Hockey Stick" to curve-fit the temperature data in order to make predictions.

In the case of global warming we have many temperature measuring stations which are being questioned as to their accuracy (SurfaceStations.org) The loudest camp, those who want to blame mans pollution for the temperature increase, do not consider any other data which may conflict with their data. Many have suggested solar changes which don't seem to interest the "church of man-made climate doom" members. then there is this interesting article in
NewScientist.com. This discusses the increase in solar radiation reaching the ground in Europe due to the cleaner air there. That cleaner air is due to the work of environmentalists to eliminate the pollution of the skies. Seems they dis an admirable job since the air is 60% clearer and there is an increase of one watt per square meter of solar radiation.

Not only has the air in Europe gotten cleaner, I remember having days in the 1950's and 1960's where it hurt to inhale deeply the air in the Los Angeles area. Days where due to the smog the mountains only three miles away could not be seen. By the time I left that area there was a noticeable improvement in those conditions. No measurements, simply data from an casual observation. This does not mean to infer that when California is burning, as it is while I write this, that the air is cleaner.

The hockey stick is the oft-repeated phrase used to describe the temperature graphs and the prediction of dire consequences. That because a hockey stick visually represents an exponential growth and increases the feat of what is coming. If it keeps going like this. (Oops that is how a Sci-Fi author builds his ideas) The problem with this hockey stick or exponential curve fit is that nature much more loves the sine curve. As seen in the eleven year solar cycle the day night cycle, even biorhythms are sinusoidal.

Why would Scientists describe it as exponential increase rather than anything else? We come back to money as mentioned in my previous article, they need money from grants. If their study field happens to be popular in the media then it is easy to get those grants. There is also the pier pressure, "Its not nice to buck the current thinking in academia." You can be fired or black-balled for going against what your boss believes or quite possibly is making his living off of. That is why a large portion of the dissenting opinion is coming from outside of the established academic community. It does not cost us our jobs.

Speaking of predictions, I have a friend who is a "Church of MMGW" member, he sent me a link to an article on the prediction of the Arctic Ice cap melting, by the end of the year. Which has in fact been all over the news and the web. I was sent this prediction as proof that global warming is real and man made. Sorry, a prediction is not data. It also says nothing to the source. It will be interesting once the year is past to reflect upon this. Will it join the list of predictions like "famine and food riots by 1990", "End of the world in 2000"? Or will we actually see a northwest passage to Asia open? After a quick search of Arctic Ice I see articles about record melt and refreeze (sinusoidal) and volcanoes under the ice. Now there is another possible input to the climate engine. We have sub surface factors, we have extra-planetary (solar) inputs to the climate system both in the arena of nature which spawns things of much greater effect than those meager accomplishments of man.

In order to accurately predict a systems action it is necessary to have data on all of the major inputs to the system. If any data are ignored or unknown then the prediction will be in error. Any errors in the measurements of those inputs will also add to errors in the prediction. In the case of the Man Made Global Warming Frenzy we are also seeing data modified and ignored because it would not further the desired goals. Those goals include predictions of drastic temperature increases in the near future thus generating fear by the people of the world. Fear, so that we do not complain as we give them money to continue their existence in at least the same if not more comfortable manner.

As complex as the climate system is I do not believe that it can be simplified to the point of saying that we have doomed ourselves by exhaling. The greatest damage from making this claim and riding it to a cleaner environment, is in loosing creditability when it proves to be wrong. Then the cleanup effort will suffer. We will go back to our ways of fouling our nest. Robert A. Heinlein once said "The Earth is too fragile a basket for mankind to keep all of her eggs in." Weather basket or nest mankind seems to have forgotten that is is not a good idea to defaecate where you live. I would hate to see the cleanup effort die due to poor choice of a bandwagon to attach to.

We the sheepul will pay any amount to insure our safety from all foes, be they real or invented by those with ulterior motives. An early American said "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." It seems that today most of the world disagrees with Mr. Franklin. Perhaps he was able to see how the masses could be led by their fear.

Fear, fear the increasing temperature, give us your money so that we may save your miserable lives.

Global Warming:

Science or Fiction

We hear a lot on the news today about "Global Warming". There are advertisements from various environmental organizations and the news is continuously telling us that we are doomed.

Last Update: 25 June 2008

When the Television meteorologist tells us that there is chance of snow or rain tomorrow, they are drawing from data provided by large groups of scientists, in the U.S. the National Weather Service. Yet we have learned from experience that weather forecasting is FAR from an accurate science. If the prediction is 30%, most of us do not plan around bad weather. If the prediction is 90% then most do plan for it. But, have you ever seen these scientists predict a 90% chance of snow more than 7 day out? No, that far into the future would be fortune telling not science. Most of us would not pay any attention to the weatherman who tells us that that there 95% chance that there will be a storm two weeks from Wednesday, so why is everyone so willing to believe the GLOBAL WARMING prediction? Maybe because you can turn your television to any channel and listen to the news people tell us how we need to worry. You can read about in your news papers. You can read books and see movies on the subject.

Since the middle of last century there have been dire predictions of many types. We were going to run out of food by the 1990's. We were also going to run out of oil in the same time frame. During the 1970's there was talk of global cooling and the coming ice age. Today we are hearing of global warming. Strangely, this makes me picture the bearded 'street crazy' with sandwich boards stating, "The end is near", standing next to Al Gore holding up his book and movie. Global warming has become a political catch phrase. Even more disturbing is the trend to censure anyone with a dissenting opinion.









There is data showing that the average temperature of our eco-sphere has been increasing recently. The cause of this warming trend is what is in question. Is it due to pollutants generated by man or is it due to some other outside factor. If we assume it is due to "green house" pollution then ask the question, "What if this warming trend continues." We can build a model that fits these suppositions and write articles warning of the results that our models predict. This method sound startlingly similar to the method used by science fiction writers to create a story, not like scientific method.

Here is a picture I found on the web of the siting of some official temperature measuring equipment you can read about this at Watts Up With That? If the link won't work WattsUp copy

Climate researcher/Station Designer.

More information on more bad station siting SurfaceSstations.org Here is a new address for the Watts Up With That? Blog.

The scientists who study these issues are funded by government grants. Obtaining those grants is much easier if your area of research is also a hot political and media issue. It is easier to get grants if your proposed study will produce evidence to back the popular belief. Therefore it pays better to do studies that do not oppose. You would have a lot of trouble getting a grant to study the connection between Earth warming and the receding Martian polar ice caps. Yet there is data that show the possibility of some outside influence to the current warming trend.

I took this picture while passing at 60+MPH. It is located on a transition road from the Kilpatrick Turnpike to Lake Heffner Parkway. All concrete and cars. This looks like a temperature pagoda and possibly a rain guage. I wonder if this contributes to the data?





Political Science: I am sure you have heard the term before. There seems to be an alarming abuse of a new form of political science. That being politicians using science to further their political goals. Lets call it political-media-science. Politicians have historically used statistics as the science of getting the answer you want from the data. This article says that data showing higher temperatures during the Middle Ages than today has been omitted in the U.N. report on global warming. That is how statistics is abused; leave out data that is not supportive of your desired results. It is hard to find opinion pieces which support the dissenting point of view. Perhaps the media has abandoned the principle of unbiased reporting.

One of the favorite comments from the believers is: "Can we afford to ignore this if it is happening?" That is a good statement. We all know it is not a good idea to crap in the nest. So the believer raises their nose and smugly moves to the next subject in their repertoire. There is truth in the statement "We can not afford to ignore this warming". We also should not ignore the possibility that it is caused by an outside source, like an increase in solar radiation? Perhaps we should consider terraforming Mars, it is further away from the sun. Kim Stanley Robinson handled the terraforming of Mars in the Mars trilogy: "Red Mars", "Green Mars", and "Blue Mars" (Bantam Spectra Books). Oops we are back to science fiction.

If you were wondering about the bold on the believers that is due to the fact that the actions of the believers is much like religious zealots. Iy you voice a dissenting opinion you are shouted down and insulted. Name calling is the first defense of the religious zealot. Thus I may refer to these believers as members of "The Church of Global Warming".

Are we all being led by politicians with a docile media into
paying for solutions to a science fiction problem?

I believe we need to find an alternative to the gasoline internal combustion engine for our cars. Coal and oil are not the way to generate electricity, because smog sucks, not GW. I also believe that any reduction of noxious fumes is good. We already have the technology, we just don't use it. But I am tired of the politicians, the media and the gullible populace leaping from one band wagon to the next. A lie is not the right way to get the world to reduce pollution. It will be found out, credibility will suffer, and improvements will stall. Perhaps the truth, not exaggeration, not metaphor, simple truth. We are fouling our nest. The animals we like to feel superior to know better than to do that.

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